Climate change is conk out to have a lot of unpleasant consequences . But at least those of us on the East Coast wo n’t face as many nasty winter snowstorms , right ? Well … a new study is throwing a bit of cold water supply on that silver lining .
resident of the Northeast are all too intimate with nor’easters , frigid - weather condition cyclone that can fork up eye - come out snow total attach to by top executive outage , terrible traffic , monumental schoolhouse stoppage , and back - breaking shoveling . Researchpublished of late in Geophysical Research Letters looked at how these and other winter blizzard will change in a warming world . While snowphobes might jolly along the late 21st century forecast of less white stuff on the whole , the biggest and baddest storms — which ofttimes come down into the nor’easter bucket — are improbable to go aside .
“ The melodic theme is we ’ll have less total blizzard in the future , but when you do have a blizzard , it ’s more likely it ’ll be an intense blizzard than a weak one , ” subject authorColin Zarzycki , an assistant prof in Penn State ’s Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science , told Earther .
Zarzycki turn over this bummer conclusion by search at 35 different mood model computer simulation run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( he conducted the enquiry while he was a task scientist there ) . These models are all base on the same premiss about our succeeding mood ( in this case , a high carbon copy emissions scenario know as RCP 8.5 ) but use slightly unlike starting conditions that can lead to unlike outcomes for the atmospheric condition . He then wrote an algorithm to pluck out individual snowstorms from these models and create a probability distribution of dissimilar snowy future .
This approach is especially helpful for forecast how big , infrequently occurring storm might interchange , Zarzycki said .
The depth psychology indicate that although wintertime storm will be more likely to knock down their water as rainwater in a warmer hereafter , when snow does strike it could pile up even high than it does today . That ’s because lovesome sea will ply more fuel for storms , and a warmer air can restrain more moisture . Overall , the study predicts the routine of big winter storms to look roughly the same by century ’s last .
Several expert not necessitate with the study say these results made good sense . “ The study luff out the obvious , that as things tender , we are more apt to get rain rather than snow , ” NCAR climate scientist Kevin Trenberth order Earther in an electronic mail . “ But it also points out we can still get big snows . The sea are warming and thus can readily supply plenty of moisture . Even in a warmer world , though , we still have wintertime and it gets moth-eaten over land and to the North . ”
MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel also thought study ’s conclusions about snowfall seemed “ fairish ” but tot that it ’s important to debate the coastal flooding impact of winter storm , too . Indeed , nor’easters often produceworse floodingfor the northeastern U.S. than hurricane , and ocean level rise will give those frigid , car - entombing floodwaterssome spare juice .
Zarzycki said factorization in the effect of violent storm surge was an of import direction for next piece of work . He ’s also hoping to depend at how shift in universe tightness ( people actuate into or out of urban center ) could pretend succeeding winter storm hazard .
“ This looks at the big delineation of snowfall , but some next generation clime model might allow us to practice down on what this mean for New York City or Philly , ” he said , adding that these hyper - local impact “ require really big reckoner . ”
Bottom line for East Coasters , though ? You ’re going to need to keep that snow shovel on hand at least until the remnant of the century .
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