2020 is the year that keeps on giving . If you enjoyed the almost artificial satellite hit of January 29 , you ’re going to love the higher stakes hit that may take place soon .
On Friday , October 16 , at 00:56 UTC ( Thursday 15 , 20:56 ET ) , two orbiter with a combined mass of almost three loads will fly within 12 meter ( 39 feet ) of each other with a chance of colliding higher than one - in - ten , according to space rubble tracking companyLeoLabs . This dangerous flyby will take place over the Weddell Sea in Antarctica at an elevation of 991 kilometers ( 616 miles ) .
The two target in question are quintessential space junk . One is the Eruca sativa leg of the firstChang Zheng ( Long March ) 4Crocket that was launch back in 1999 and has a weight of about 2 tons . The other is a defunct Russian military orbiter from theParus fleetused for communication and navigation , weighing 825 kilograms ( 1,819 pounds ) .
The two are run towards each other at 14.7 kilometers ( 9.1 statute mile ) per second . That is about 12 times fast than a bullet but with the mass of a auto . The theory of hit is complicated by the fact that the Parus has a boom that extends for 17 meters ( 56 foot ) , which may or may not arrive at the roquette piece , even if the main body of the satellites do n’t collide . Since the two bodies are just relics , there ’s no way to move them out of each other ’s way .
space vehicle take evasive maneuver even when they are tens of kilometers from each other , just to be on the safe side . The International Space Station ( ISS)had to shift orbit three sentence in 2020and experienced three high - concern conjunctions with other fabric in ambit . Space agencies extend to force for young commercial satellite to have end - of - animation destruction plans as well as the power to track them all the manner back into the atmosphere , but this has n’t become the norm . in the beginning this year , another part ofa Formosan rocketfell into the village of Mahounou in Côte d’Ivoire , missing New York by just 15 minutes .
This current hit does n’t pose an contiguous hazard to humans but it gets us closer to theKessler Syndrome . This is a theoretical scenario where the number of collisions grows exponentially , as one collision get century of pieces of debris that clash with other satellites and so on . This scenario could give entire regions of near - Earth space a peril to decease through .
