More than 75 percent of the Amazon rainforest might be approaching a “tipping point” of dieback.
“Deforestation and climate change are likely to be the main drivers of this decline,” said Niklas Boers, a professor at Technical University of Munich and one of the study’s authors, according topress releasefrom the University of Exeter. “Resilience is being lost faster in parts of the rainforest that are closer to human activity, as well as those with less rainfall.”
“Many researchers have theorised that a tipping point could be reached, but our study provides vital empirical evidence that we are approaching that threshold,” Boers added.
Using satellite data to observe month-to-month changes in the Amazon’s resilience over a span of decades, researchers found that resilience increased from 1991 to around 2000, but it has since consistently declined well below 1991 levels.
Amazon rainforest.Mark Fox Photography/ Getty
Resilience dropped during the droughts of 2005 and 2010, and although rainfall has not dramatically changed in recent decades, droughts have become more common and severe, according to the press release.
“If too much resilience is lost, dieback may become inevitable — but that won’t become obvious until the major event that tips the system over,” said Professor Boers. “Many interlinked factors — including droughts, fires, deforestation, degradation and climate change — could combine to reduce resilience and trigger the crossing of a tipping point in the Amazon.”
Although biomass in the rainforest has declined slightly, the loss of resilience has been much more severe, the study noted. It’s not clear if or when the Amazon will reach the tipping point of dieback, which could have “major impacts on biodiversity, global carbon storage and climate change,” the University of Exeter said.
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“The Amazon rainforest is a highly complex system, so it’s very difficult to predict if and when a tipping point could be reached,” said the University of Exeter’s Dr. Chris Boulton, the study’s co-author.
The Amazon suffered a major blow in 2019 when thousands of square miles — about the size of New Jersey —were lost to record-breaking wildfires.
Known as “the planet’s lungs,” the Amazon produces about 20 percent of Earth’s oxygen.
source: people.com
